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中华临床实验室管理电子杂志 ›› 2023, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (03) : 151 -157. doi: 10.3877/cma.j.issn.2095-5820.2023.03.005

调查研究

基于MIMIC-Ⅲ数据库的急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症风险预测模型构建与评价
姜巧, 张溱乐, 张艳玲, 余展鹏()   
  1. 510510 广东广州,广东三九脑科医院重症监护病区
    510120 广东广州,广州医科大学第一临床学院
    511180 广东广州,广州医科大学金域检验学院;510700 广东广州,广州医科大学附属第五医院检验科
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-29 出版日期:2023-08-28
  • 通信作者: 余展鹏
  • 基金资助:
    广州市卫生健康科技项目(20221A010071)

Construction and evaluation of risk prediction model of acute pancreatitis complicated with sepsis based on MIMIC-Ⅲ database

Qiao Jiang, Zhenle Zhang, Yanling Zhang, Zhanpeng Yu()   

  1. Intensive Care Unit of Guangdong 999 Brain Hospital, Guangzhou Guangdong 510510, China
    The First Clinical College of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Guangdong 510120, China
    KingMed School of Laboratory Medicine, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Guangdong 511180, China; Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Fifth Affiliated of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou Guangdong 510700, China
  • Received:2023-03-29 Published:2023-08-28
  • Corresponding author: Zhanpeng Yu
引用本文:

姜巧, 张溱乐, 张艳玲, 余展鹏. 基于MIMIC-Ⅲ数据库的急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症风险预测模型构建与评价[J/OL]. 中华临床实验室管理电子杂志, 2023, 11(03): 151-157.

Qiao Jiang, Zhenle Zhang, Yanling Zhang, Zhanpeng Yu. Construction and evaluation of risk prediction model of acute pancreatitis complicated with sepsis based on MIMIC-Ⅲ database[J/OL]. Chinese Journal of Clinical Laboratory Management(Electronic Edition), 2023, 11(03): 151-157.

目的

分析急性胰腺炎患者并发脓毒症的危险因素,并建立急性胰腺炎患者并发脓毒症的风险预测模型。

方法

从重症监护医疗信息集市(MIMIC-Ⅲ)数据库中提取急性胰腺炎患者临床数据,使用Lasso回归分析筛选急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症的潜在危险因素,在此基础上,使用Logistic回归分析构建急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症的风险预测模型并绘制列线图预测模型,通过计算一致性指数(C-index)、绘制该模型的校准曲线、临床决策曲线及临床影响曲线,评价模型的预测能力与临床适用性。

结果

建立的急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症风险预测模型共纳入了包括临床体征及实验室检验指标在内的10个潜在危险因素,模型的C-index为0.800,重抽样后验证C-index为0.774,列线图校准曲线显示校准曲线与理想曲线有较好的一致性,此外临床决策曲线与影响曲线分析结果显示本模型有较好的临床适用性,急性胰腺炎患者使用此列线图模型能获得临床净收益。

结论

基于MIMIC-Ⅲ构建的急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症风险预测模型具有良好的临床实用性。

Objective

Analyze the risk factors of sepsis in patients with acute pancreatitis, and establish a risk prediction model of sepsis in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Methods

Clinical data of patients with acute pancreatitis was extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅲ (MIMIC-Ⅲ) database. Lasso regression analysis was used to screen potential risk factors for concurrent sepsis in acute pancreatitis. Based on this, logistic regression analysis was used to construct a risk prediction model for concurrent sepsis in acute pancreatitis and a calibration curve was plotted. The predictive ability and clinical applicability of the model were evaluated by calculating the C-index, plotting the calibration curve of the model, and analyzing the clinical decision curve and impact curve.

Results

A risk prediction model for concurrent sepsis in acute pancreatitis was established, which included 10 potential risk factors including clinical signs and laboratory test results. The model had a C-index of 0.800, with a validation C-index of 0.774 after resampling. The calibration curve showed good consistency with the ideal curve. In addition, the clinical decision curve and impact curve analysis showed that this model has good clinical applicability. Acute pancreatitis patients can benefit from using this calibration curve model to obtain clinical net benefits.

Conclusions

The risk prediction model of acute pancreatitis complicated with sepsis based on MIMIC-Ⅲ has good clinical practicability.

表1 两组急性胰腺炎患者的人口学及临床特征
变量名称 非并发脓毒症组(n=203) 并发脓毒症组(n=147) P
年龄/(
x¯
±s
56.67±16.15 58.68±15.36 0.237
性别/例(%) 0.299
94(46) 59(40)
109(54) 88(60)
最高体温/例(%) 0.004
≤38 ℃ 129(64) 70(48)
>38 ℃ 74(36) 77(52)
是否出现心动过速/例(%) 0.023
60(30) 27(18)
143(70) 120(82)
是否出现气促/例(%) 0.002
142(70) 78(53)
61(30) 69(47)
SOFA评分 3(1,5) 5(3.5,9) <0.001
白细胞计数/(×109/L) 14.6(10.65,19.05) 15.3(11.2,21.75) 0.144
是否贫血/例(%) 0.054
91(45) 50(34)
112(55) 97(66)
红细胞压积/(
x¯
±s
32.74±5.98 32.26±6.46 0.477
平均红细胞体积 91(87,95) 90(87,96) 0.736
红细胞分布宽度/例(%) 0.164
正常 173(85) 116(79)
增高 30(15) 31(21)
凝血酶原时间/s 14.2(13.3,15.6) 14.9(13.5,16.25) 0.005
国际标准化比值 1.3(1.2,1.48) 1.3(1.2,1.55) 0.020
活化部分凝血活酶时间/s 29.1(26.15,34.37) 31.9(27.75,36.9) <0.001
钠离子/(mmol/L) 141(138,144) 141(138.5,144) 0.603
钾离子/(mmol/L) 4.3(3.9,4.8) 4.4(4,5) 0.209
氯离子/(mmol/L) 105(101,108) 104(100,109) 0.694
碳酸氢根离子/(mmol/L) 22(19,25) 20(16,23) <0.001
血清总钙/(mg/dl) 7.8(7.3,8.3) 7.3(6.4,7.8) <0.001
血清磷/(mg/dl) 2.5(1.7,3.35) 2.6(1.9,3.5) 0.332
血清镁/(mg/dl) 1.7(1.5,1.9) 1.7(1.5,1.9) 0.104
血清白蛋白/(g/L) 29.27(27,33) 28(24,30.5) <0.001
血糖/(mg/dl) 146(114,207.5) 165(127.5,243) 0.020
血尿素氮/(mg/dl) 16(10,27) 27(18,42) <0.001
血淀粉酶/(IU/L) 436(130,596.5) 560.1(126,842) 0.051
脂肪酶/(IU/L) 595(134,1328) 632(83.5,1567) 0.711
碱性磷酸酶/(IU/L) 105(71,167.5) 97(64,148) 0.137
AST/ALT/例(%) <0.001
≤2 178(88) 105(71)
>2 25(12) 42(29)
图1 Lasso回归模型筛选变量注:1A.交叉验证曲线;1B.系数路径图。
表2 急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症危险因素
图2 急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症列线图预测模型
图3 急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症预测模型的校准曲线
图4 急性胰腺炎并发脓毒症预测模型的临床决策曲线与临床影响曲线注:4A. 临床决策曲线;黑色实线表示所有急性胰腺炎患者均未并发脓毒症的净获益率,灰色实线表示所有患者均并发脓毒症的净获益率,蓝色曲线为本研究模型的决策曲线;4B. 临床影响曲线。
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